How do you decide if Orlando is investable?

We look for above-average job and population growth, manageable new supply, and supportive policy. For Orlando, we underwrite conservatively to account for elevated deliveries and insurance.

What cap rates are you underwriting for Orlando?

For Class B/C value-add we typically model a 5.5–6.25% exit cap, testing ±50 bps for sensitivity based on submarket, vintage, and business plan.

What are the biggest risks right now?

Insurance and tax increases plus temporary oversupply. We mitigate with reserves, portfolio pricing, and conservative rent growth in high-delivery submarkets.

Orlando Multifamily Market — Q4 2025

Orlando faces a near-term softening in rents amid elevated supply, but long-term fundamentals — strong population and job growth — support a rebound. Conservative underwriting and exit cap buffers remain key.

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At-a-Glance KPIs —

Jobs (YoY):
Population (YoY):
Rent Growth (YoY):
Vacancy:
Deliveries (12m):
Under Construction:
Class B Cap Rate: –

Last updated

Drivers & Demand

Employment Base:  Diversified mix across hospitality, healthcare, logistics, and aerospace; major employers include Disney, AdventHealth, Lockheed Martin, Siemens, and Amazon.
Migration:  In‑migration > 60 000 per year; state‑to‑state inflows from NY, NJ, and CA remain strong.
Infrastructure:  I‑4 Ultimate Project, SunRail expansion, Orlando International Airport Terminal C add 
capacity and connectivity.
Education / Anchors:  UCF (70 000 students) and AdventHealth campus fuel steady housing demand.

Supply & Competition

Pipeline:  ≈ 12, 262 units under construction; largest since 2018. Delivery concentration in Lake Nona and
 Kissimmee.
Absorption:  Healthy but slowing — many new leases offering concessions (1–2 months free).
Competitive Set:  Class B 1985‑2005 vintage with average unit size ~950 sf; value‑add potential through 
interior updates and management efficiency.

Rents/Vacancy/Cap Rates

Rents:  Class B asking rents avg ~$1 700 / month ($1 65 psf); effective rents flat due to concessions.
Vacancy:  6.2 % and rising slightly with new deliveries; stabilization expected by late 2026.
Cap Rates: Class B trades in the 5.2 - 6.0 % range (core) and ~6.7 % for value‑add depending on submarket 
and upside assumptions.

Risks & Mitigations

Insurance Costs:  Continue climbing 10 – 15 %; mitigate via higher deductibles and property pooling.
Taxes:  Budget for reassessment post‑rehab; file appeals when appropriate.
Supply Overhang:  Monitor lease‑up velocity in Lake Nona / Kissimmee; underwrite modest rent growth.
Employer Concentration:  Offset hospitality risk with defense / tech / medical tenants.

What We’re Buying

Asset:  B / C‑class multifamily 100 – 300 units in high‑growth corridors.
Strategy:  Operational efficiency, interior upgrades, rental re‑positioning.
Target Returns:  ~15 % IRR for LP investors (assumption‑based, not guaranteed).

FAQ

How do you decide if Orlando is investable?
Orlando meets our growth criteria: strong job creation, in‑migration, and infrastructure investment. 
We account for elevated supply by using conservative rents and exit caps.
What cap rates are you underwriting for Orlando?
Typically 5.5 – 6.25 % exit cap for Class B/C value‑add, with sensitivity cases ± 50 bps.
What are the biggest risks right now?
Insurance and tax increases, plus temporary oversupply. We mitigate through portfolio aggregation and 
reserve buffers.
How can I see deals early?
Join our Investor Club to receive deal alerts and due‑diligence updates.